Physical Science and the Demographic Cliff
S. M. Gollmer
Reading the September issue of Physics Today, I came across an article by Trevor Owens titled “The decline in physics bachelor’s degrees: Contributors and consequences.” It is not surprising that he cites the demographic cliff in higher education. This cliff is due to the sudden decline in birth rates after the Great Recession and the lower percentage of high school students choosing higher education rather than entering the work force. These factors contribute to a projected 13% decline in enrollment through 2041.
Physics has always been a low enrollment major given the demands of a major that is at the nexus of mathematics and science. However, what did surprise me was the declines in other physical sciences: 17% decline in physics, 22% decline in chemistry, and 31% decline in geology/geosciences. With a national trend for state legislators to eliminate low enrollment majors (e.g. Advanced Ohio Higher Education Act) it is concerning that cuts to these programs will result in even fewer graduates in these fields.
At the same time, the U.S. Department of Education has an Earnings Accountability rule that will cut off federal student loans to programs that produce graduates earning low incomes. The goal between both components of education policy is graduates that can find jobs that get a return on investment for their bachelor’s degree. The irony lies in the fact that the very programs that have a solid return on investment are also those that have low enrollment. Not everybody can do physics, chemistry, and geology and, therefore, these fields provide an opportunity for high school students in search of a satisfying career.
Artificial intelligence is also shifting the landscape. With automation, there is less need for chemists performing routine wet-lab procedures. However, the outcome of a BS in Chemistry degree is not a technician that accurately follows a checklist, but a scientist knowledgeable in chemical synthesis and interactions. Add to that the ability to analyze data and implement AI tools and you have a graduate that is marketable upon graduation.
Physics is likewise resilient to the AI revolution. Being at the interface of mathematics and science, physics graduates have analytical skills that are portable beyond physics and astronomy. Engineering as well as interdisciplinary fields, such as materials science and biophysics, regularly incorporate physicists in their research groups. Although AI can explore a vast array of scenarios, it takes an individual with subject matter expertise to direct the research and attribute meaning to significant outcomes. This is true of physics and chemistry, as well as any of the sciences.
Geology and geosciences, likewise, have a two-fold opportunity for bachelor’s degree graduates. First, there are many geoscientists approaching the end of their professional career. This “silver tsunami” will leave corporations in need of earth scientists that can retain institutional knowledge in the oil/gas, mining, and environmental industries. In addition, our technological world has an increasing demand for critical minerals, which exacerbates our need for individuals who can ethically guide our search for solutions to satisfy this demand.
While the author of the Physics Today article provides recommendations for the inevitable cliff, I see a golden opportunity for Cedarville University graduates in the disciplines of physics, chemistry, and geology/geosciences. CNBC released America’s Top States for Business 2026. Ohio is number one due to its infrastructure and cost of doing business. Of the ten broad categories used in the ranking, Ohio scored lowest in “workforce.” This measures the concentration of qualified STEM workers available to fill the need of businesses operating in Ohio.
When I came to southwest Ohio thirty years ago, there was talk of the “rust belt” due to the decline of the automotive industry. The Miami Valley lost significant employers, such as General Motors and NCR (National Cash Register). However, today there are businesses coming to Ohio and the Miami Valley. This technological renaissance increases the need for graduates in STEM fields, and in turn jobs for our graduates. Cedarville University, being the first institution in Ohio to do a campus-wide launch of ChatGPT Edu, positions its graduates to use AI effectively in their disciplines of study. Our graduates also have a reputation of being well prepared and having a heart to serve Christ in the church and their community. The demographic cliff is a concern for every institution of higher education, but for the School of Science and Mathematics at Cedarville University I am excited for the opportunities our graduates have in Ohio, the United States, and around the world.
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